Sangma helped bring the BJP into Meghalaya’s governing arrangement when it was a marginal force. Its sudden expansion now raises questions about whether the saffron party could emerge as a competitor for political space within the MDA.
BY Navin Upadhyay
September 28: When Conrad K. Sangma stitched together the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance in 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Party was a marginal force in the state with just two MLAs. The BJP nevertheless became part of the coalition that enabled Sangma to form the government.
Seven years later, the BJP has emerged as a potential second-largest force in the Meghalaya Assembly, after eight United Democratic Party MLAs joined the saffron party on September 23.
The move has not changed the numerical strength of the NPP-led government — Sangma’s National People’s Party still has 33 MLAs in the 60-member House, two above the majority mark. But it has altered the political atmosphere, with speculation growing that the BJP could now look beyond the UDP and attempt to expand its footprint inside the NPP itself.
For Sangma, the irony is hard to miss. The BJP entered Meghalaya’s power structure as a small coalition partner. It could now emerge as a potential challenger for political space within the same ruling alliance.
BJP moves from two to potentially 10
The eight UDP legislators — Lahkmen Rymbui, Kyrmen Shylla, Mayralborn Syiem, Pius Marwein, Ollan Sing Suin, Matthew Beyondstar Kurbah, Balajied Kupar Synrem and Synshar Kupar Roy Lyngdoh Thabah — have claimed that their move constitutes a merger protected by the Tenth Schedule.
If the Speaker accepts the claim, the BJP’s strength will rise from two to 10, while the UDP will be reduced from 12 MLAs to four. The BJP would then become the second-largest party in the Assembly.
The immediate legal issue is whether the eight constitute the required two-thirds of the UDP legislature party for a valid merger or whether they are liable for disqualification under the anti-defection law.
But the political question goes beyond the Speaker’s ruling.
The BJP’s expansion has raised speculation about whether the party intends to remain a junior partner in the NPP-led MDA or use its growing Assembly presence to build an independent political base in Meghalaya.
NPP says: No one is leaving
I would like to put it on record that the NPP remains united and firmly committed to the people of Meghalaya. The reports suggesting that NPP legislators are planning to join the BJP are baseless. Our 33 NPP MLAs remain together, and the MDA Government continues to function with… pic.twitter.com/oGbIevhtlt
— Sniawbha Dhar (@sniawbhadhar) September 26, 2026
Deputy Chief Minister and NPP national vice-president Sniawbhalang Dhar moved quickly to dismiss reports that the UDP defections could be followed by a larger exodus from the NPP.
Returning from Delhi with Sangma and Deputy Chief Minister Prestone Tynsong, Dhar said their visit had been purely for official work and rejected reports that 22 NPP MLAs were camping in the capital to meet BJP leaders.
“All 33 NPP MLAs are intact,” Dhar said, insisting that there was nothing wrong within the NPP and that Sangma, Tynsong and he remained “of one mind”.
He also dismissed speculation that the BJP’s expansion would affect the MDA government. The UDP-BJP development, he said, was an issue between the two parties and had no impact on the coalition government.
Dhar further denied any BJP demand to increase its Cabinet representation from one berth to four, saying that everything would remain unchanged.
His repeated assurances underline the sensitivity of the issue. The NPP has the numbers to govern, but the leadership clearly wants to prevent speculation about a wider realignment from gaining political momentum.
From coalition partner to potential competitor
The BJP’s present position is markedly different from 2018.
At that time, its two MLAs were sufficient to give the party a place within the governing coalition but not enough to pose an independent political challenge. Even after the 2023 election, the BJP remained at two seats.
The eight UDP defections change that equation.
The BJP would acquire legislators spread across the Khasi and Jaintia Hills without having won those seats in an election under its own symbol. That distinction remains important: the party’s legislative strength would increase dramatically, but its corresponding electoral base remains untested.
In the 2023 election, the BJP won only two seats and secured about 9.3 per cent of the statewide vote. In the eight constituencies represented by the former UDP legislators, BJP candidates collectively polled far fewer votes than the UDP candidates who won those seats.
The BJP therefore has acquired legislative influence much faster than it has demonstrated a comparable voter base.
Meghalaya Congress president Vincent H. Pala made the same distinction, arguing that the BJP’s new Assembly strength should not be equated with a popular mandate. “They might have got the MLAs, but whether they’ll get the mandate of the people or not, that we are yet to see,” Pala said, pointing to the 2028 Assembly election as the electoral test.
READ: Massive Protest in Imphal Demands NRC With 1951 Base Year
Dhar invokes 2028
Dhar also sought to put the BJP’s new Assembly strength in the context of Meghalaya’s electoral history.
He pointed to the state’s Christian-majority character and said Meghalaya voters had not accepted the BJP for more than four decades. Temporary political shifts, he suggested, would ultimately be tested by voters in the 2028 Assembly election.
Dhar expressed confidence that the NPP would improve on its present strength of 33 seats.
That confidence reflects the NPP’s immediate political calculation: the government does not need the BJP to survive.
But the BJP does not necessarily need to bring down the government to expand its influence.
By remaining inside the MDA while absorbing legislators from regional parties, it can strengthen its Assembly presence, organisational network and bargaining power ahead of the next election.
The political irony for Sangma
This is where the current realignment creates a new dilemma for Sangma.
The NPP remains comfortably ahead in Assembly numbers, and the government is not under an immediate numerical threat. But the BJP that Sangma once accommodated as a small coalition partner is no longer quite so small.
If the UDP merger is recognised, the BJP will have five times its present Assembly strength and become the second-largest party in the House. The UDP, meanwhile, will be reduced to a much weaker regional force.
The immediate loser is the UDP. The longer-term question is whether the BJP’s gain eventually comes at the expense of the NPP.
There is no established evidence that a large-scale NPP defection to the BJP is currently under way, and Dhar has categorically rejected such speculation. But the fact that the possibility has become a subject of political discussion marks a significant change from the BJP’s position when Sangma first brought it into the MDA.
The Speaker’s ruling will settle the legal status of the eight legislators. The larger political test will come later: whether the BJP can turn an Assembly strength acquired through defections into a genuine electoral base — and whether Sangma’s NPP can retain its dominant position in a coalition whose once-smallest national ally has suddenly become a much more consequential political partner.
