An expanded meeting of emerging economies is taking place in Kazan, Russia, is sending jitters among EU policymakers.
Initially the grouping consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa only, but as of January 1, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also joined the club- creating a bloc worth 37% of Global GDP – and one potentially at odds with other institutions such as the G7 and NATO.
Strength or Weakness in expansion?
“It’s an informal club, they are mostly united in the sense of what they are against”, namely an economic order they feel is sacked against them, Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carneige Endowment think tank , told the media.
With free trade fraying, the invasion of Ukraine, and tensions in Taiwan, the EU relationship with China has grown increasingly fractious, and with Russia it has more or less collapsed.
But expanding BRICS could weaken the alliance, Patrick argued.
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“As it adds new members, the diversity and heterogeneity is just going to make it even more difficult for BRICS to come up with coherent worldviews and policies,” he said.
“The whole thing looks impressive on a big map of the world, but in terms of its unity, that’s, I think, where you would have to scratch your head and look twice”, he added.
With regional rivals India and China it already has internal tensions, new members such as Saudi Arabia and Iran were “Historically mortal enemies”, Patrick said.
Controversial Partners
The most controversial new member is Turkey- whose President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also travelling to Russia.
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO, and was historically partners with the west. Its foreign minister just hinted that the geopolitical switch was due to being repeatedly rebuffed for membership of the EU.
“This is the example of Turkey that is has other diplomatic options” Patrick said.
But it’s the presence of another European that’s drawing the most attention.
António Guterres, the former Portuguese Prime Minister who’s now UN Secretary General, is apparently attending – something the Ukrainian foreign ministry has described, in a post on X, as “a wrong choice that does not advance the cause of peace” and “damages the UN’s reputation”.
Lithuania’s foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis joined the chorus, calling Guterres’ move “unacceptable” in a post on X.
UNacceptable https://t.co/cUeeh8d6mj
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) October 22, 2024
There could be legitimate reasons for Guterres visiting Russia, such as fostering a peace initiative, but Patrick is wary.
“It might be seen as legitimating Vladimir Putin’s policies … I don’t see much upside for him doing that,” he said.
