Continued strikes across the region highlight Tehran’s ability to sustain operations even after weeks of US-Israeli attacks.
BY PC Bureau
April 3, 2026″ Claims by Donald Trump that the war with Iran is nearing its end are increasingly being challenged by intelligence assessments that paint a far more complex — and prolonged — conflict.
Speaking earlier this week, Trump said the war could conclude within “two to three weeks,” while warning that Iran could be pushed “back to the Dark Ages” if it failed to comply with US demands. The remarks were in line with a series of statements made since the early days of the conflict, in which he repeatedly asserted that Iran’s military had been effectively “knocked out.”
On March 4, just five days into the war, Trump declared that Iran’s navy and air force had been eliminated. Weeks later, he doubled down, claiming the country’s military leadership had been wiped out and its operational capacity destroyed. Similar statements have been made at multiple points, each suggesting that Iran’s ability to resist was nearing collapse.
However, intelligence reports from US agencies — cited by multiple international media outlets — suggest a starkly different reality. While sustained US-Israeli strikes have inflicted significant damage on Iranian military infrastructure, they have not eliminated the country’s ability to wage war.
According to these assessments, only about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been definitively destroyed so far. Another third may have been damaged but not completely neutralised, leaving a substantial portion still potentially usable. Critically, roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are believed to remain intact, along with a large number of cruise missiles positioned along its southern coastline.
This residual capability is not merely theoretical. Iran has continued to launch missiles and drones at regional targets, including strikes that have impacted energy infrastructure in Gulf countries. Even when intercepted, these attacks demonstrate that Tehran retains both the intent and the capacity to project force beyond its borders.
Iran has also firmly rejected claims that it is running out of weapons. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said missile and drone production remains ongoing despite weeks of bombardment. Officials have emphasised that the country’s defence strategy relies on dispersed, mobile, and underground systems designed specifically to survive sustained air campaigns.
READ: Iran Publishes ‘Hit List’ of Gulf Bridges After US Strike
Before the war, Iran was widely believed to possess one of the largest and most diverse missile arsenals in West Asia. Estimates ranged from 2,000 to 2,500 medium-range ballistic missiles and up to 8,000 short-range systems, in addition to a growing fleet of drones and cruise missiles. Much of this arsenal is stored in underground facilities, including hardened tunnels and mountain bases, making it extremely difficult to locate and destroy entirely.
Even where US strikes have been successful — such as targeting entrances to underground depots — intelligence sources caution that many weapons may simply be temporarily inaccessible rather than permanently destroyed. If the intensity of the conflict decreases, these stockpiles could potentially be recovered and redeployed.
US officials have pointed to a sharp drop in the number of Iranian missile and drone launches as evidence that their campaign is working. According to Pentagon estimates, attack volumes have fallen significantly compared to the opening phase of the war. But analysts warn that a reduction in frequency does not necessarily indicate a loss of capability. Instead, it may reflect tactical restraint, stockpiling, or a shift in targeting strategy.
Questions also remain over Iran’s naval strength. While Washington says it has destroyed a large number of Iranian naval vessels, experts highlight that the country’s most strategically relevant maritime assets are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rather than the conventional navy. These include hundreds — possibly thousands — of small fast-attack boats and unmanned surface vessels that can be used to disrupt shipping, particularly in chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Control over this narrow waterway remains one of Iran’s most significant strategic levers. Any sustained disruption could have immediate global consequences, particularly for energy markets, given the volume of oil and gas shipments that pass through the strait daily. Even the threat of a blockade has already contributed to volatility in fuel prices and heightened concerns among importing nations.
The divergence between political messaging and intelligence findings underscores the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the war. While US and Israeli officials have framed their objectives as degrading Iran’s missile programme and limiting its strategic reach, available evidence suggests those goals have only been partially achieved.
Iran, meanwhile, continues to demonstrate resilience — both militarily and structurally. Its ability to absorb strikes, maintain production, and continue launching attacks indicates that it remains a capable adversary.
Taken together, these factors point to a conflict that is far from resolution. Despite confident projections from Washington, the balance of evidence suggests that Iran retains enough military capacity not only to sustain the war but potentially to escalate it — raising the risk of a longer and more dangerous confrontation across the region.
