The decline in Russian oil to India coincides with U.S. sanctions and President Trump remarks, highlighting geopolitical influence on India’s energy sector.
BY PC Bureau
January 6, 2026 – Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) on January 5 issued a forceful rebuttal to Bloomberg reports claiming that “three vessels laden with Russian crude oil” were en route to the company’s Jamnagar refinery. Labeling the story as “blatantly untrue” and expressing dismay over what it described as ignored denials, the episode underscores the heightened scrutiny of India’s energy relationship with Russia amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Reliance Indusrtrie’s statement clarified that its Jamnagar refinery—the world’s largest—had not received any Russian cargo in the past three weeks and is not expecting any in January. The firm expressed particular concern over reputational damage, stressing that fair journalism requires acknowledgment of its prior denials. While aimed at correcting a misreport, the Reliance Indusrtrie’s statement also coincides with broader market data showing a sharp decline in Russian oil imports to India, inadvertently lending credibility to recent assertions by U.S. President Donald Trump that India had reduced purchases “to make me happy.”
Trump Frames India’s Import Cut as Concession
On January 4, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had acted in response to his displeasure over India’s Russian imports. “He’s a very good man,” Trump said, noting that Modi reduced purchases “because he knew I was not happy.”
Senator Lindsey Graham further contextualized this narrative, pointing to U.S. sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, coupled with existing tariffs of up to 50% on select Indian goods—half of which were linked explicitly to Russian oil trade. According to Graham, India’s Ambassador to the U.S., Vinay Kwatra, had highlighted lowered imports in a December 2025 meeting to seek tariff relief, suggesting a direct connection between import behavior and diplomatic leverage.
Statement by Reliance Industries Limited:
A news report in Bloomberg claiming “three vessels laden with Russian Oil are heading for Reliance Industries Limited’s Jamnagar refinery” is blatantly untrue.
Reliance Industries’s Jamnagar refinery has not received any cargo of…
— Reliance Industries Limited (@RIL_Updates) January 5, 2026
Data Confirms Steep Drop in Russian Oil Shipments
Shipping analytics firm Kpler and energy data provider Vortexa reported that Russian crude arrivals to India averaged 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, the lowest in three years. This marked a sharp decline from November’s six-month high of 1.77–1.84 million bpd and June’s near-2 million bpd peak. Projections for January 2026 indicate further reductions, with some estimates dipping below 1 million bpd, reflecting refiners’ avoidance of sanctioned entities.
Reliance’s explicit denial of January deliveries exemplifies private-sector compliance in a complex geopolitical landscape. The Jamnagar refinery, with the capacity to process vast volumes, now operates cautiously to mitigate secondary sanction risks.
Statement by Reliance Industries Limited:
A news report in Bloomberg claiming “three vessels laden with Russian Oil are heading for Reliance Industries Limited’s Jamnagar refinery” is blatantly untrue.
Reliance Industries’s Jamnagar refinery has not received any cargo of…
— Reliance Industries Limited (@RIL_Updates) January 5, 2026
Not a Permanent Trend—Recovery Possible
Analysts caution that the decline may not be permanent. Non-sanctioned intermediaries and continued Urals discounts—recently exceeding $20 per barrel below Brent—could attract Indian refiners back to Russian oil. State-owned refiners have maintained spot purchases, keeping Russia’s share in India’s oil basket at 35–36% through November 2025. Nevertheless, the timing of the slump—post-sanctions and amid stalled U.S.-India trade talks—gives Trump’s claims of American influence a measure of empirical support.
The Indian petroleum ministry has reportedly requested weekly data from refiners on Russian and U.S. purchases, signaling proactive monitoring to potentially unlock tariff relief, reflecting a strategic balancing act between energy security and trade diplomacy.
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Bloomberg-Reliance Dispute Highlights Tracking Challenges
The controversy also highlights the limitations of vessel tracking. Kpler had flagged three tankers totaling nearly 2.2 million barrels as heading to Jamnagar, but such data reflects potential destinations, not confirmed deliveries. In opaque, sanctioned trades, plans can shift rapidly, making real-time accuracy difficult. RIL’s swift response underscores the reputational stakes for corporates navigating global energy politics.
Broader Economic and Geopolitical Implications
A sustained pivot away from Russian oil could increase India’s annual petroleum bill by $9–11 billion, adding inflationary pressure. Conversely, it boosts U.S. suppliers’ market share, which has recently risen to 7–8%. Trump’s repeated warnings of “quick” tariff hikes and legislative pushes by figures like Senator Graham—potentially reaching up to 500% on targeted goods—maintain pressure on Indian trade policy.
India’s official silence on Trump’s comments has preserved strategic ambiguity, allowing New Delhi to maintain energy security while negotiating trade flexibility. Whether the import slowdown reflects a tactical response to diplomatic pressure or signals a structural reorientation of India’s energy strategy will be a key determinant of U.S.-India economic and political dynamics in 2026.
Market Data Lends Credence to U.S. Claims
While multiple factors—including global sanctions, secondary risks, and pricing—affect crude flows, the sharp post-sanctions decline in Russian oil imports provides empirical support for Trump’s narrative of U.S. leverage. Reliance’s January stance, combined with overall national import data, highlights how policy, corporate compliance, and geopolitics intersect in the energy sector.
For now, Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy appears to have influenced real-world behavior, reinforcing the complex interplay of trade, diplomacy, and energy security that will shape the coming year.
