BY PC Bureau
In Myanmar, a nation still grappling with the scars of a 7.7-magnitude earthquake that killed over 3,700 on March 28, 2025, the arrest of 21-year-old TikTok astrologer John Moe The has ignited a firestorm. His April 9 video, predicting a “catastrophic quake” across “every city in Myanmar” on April 21, amassed 3.3 million views, sending thousands fleeing their homes in panic.
Arrested on April 22 for “spreading false statements to cause public panic,” Moe now faces a high-profile trial as the junta tightens its grip on social media. With new aftershocks rattling the region and Thailand launching a fundraiser for his defense, Moe’s case exposes the volatile intersection of superstition, digital influence, and state control in a country on edge.
The Trial Begins
On April 25, 2025, Myanmar’s military junta announced that John Moe The’s trial will commence on May 3 in Monywa, Sagaing, under the country’s Counter-Terrorism Law and Penal Code Section 505(a) for “causing public fear.” The charges, which could lead to a seven-year sentence, stem from his now-deleted TikTok video, where he urged followers to “flee buildings” and “avoid tall structures” on April 21, claiming the epicenter would be in Thailand. The junta alleges Moe’s prediction disrupted relief efforts and fueled looting in Yangon, where residents like 28-year-old Aye Myint told AFP, “We slept in fields for two nights because of John’s video.”
🇲🇲ASTROLOGER ARRESTED IN MYANMAR AFTER EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION GOES VIRAL
TikTok astrologer John Moe The told his 300,000 followers to flee buildings ahead of a “nationwide quake” on April 21.
It never happened – but the panic was real as people were still recovering from last… https://t.co/3arT8euLBJ pic.twitter.com/hhUjkauzkF
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 25, 2025
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Moe, detained in Monywa Prison, has reportedly pleaded not guilty, claiming his prediction was a “good-faith warning” based on astrology and palmistry. His lawyer, U Thein Htike, told The Irrawaddy on April 26 that Moe’s defense will argue freedom of expression, though Myanmar’s courts, under junta control, rarely acquit in such cases. Posts on X reflect divided sentiment: @MyanmarTruthcalled Moe “a victim of junta overreach,” while @SagaingNewslabeled him “a reckless influencer exploiting trauma.”
Aftershocks Amplify Fear
The timing of Moe’s prediction couldn’t have been worse. On April 13, a 5.5-magnitude aftershock struck near Meiktila, 97 kilometers south of Mandalay, one of the strongest since the March 28 quake. The U.S. Geological Survey reported no major damage, but the tremor, felt in Naypyitaw, reignited panic in a country where 140 aftershocks have hit since March. The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs noted on April 18 that “frequent aftershocks continue to shake central Myanmar, increasing fear,” with some residents fearing quakes for months.
This seismic unrest lent credence to Moe’s warning for some, despite seismologists’ insistence that earthquakes are unpredictable. Dr. Roger Bilham, a geophysicist, told The Times of India, “No method, including astrology, can forecast quakes with specificity.” Yet, in rural Sagaing, where Moe’s 300,000 TikTok followers were concentrated, belief in cosmic omens remains strong, fueling his influence.
International Backlash and Support
Moe’s arrest has drawn global attention, particularly in Thailand, where the March 28 quake killed 17 and collapsed a 30-story building in Bangkok. On April 24, Thai activist group People for Freedom launched a crowdfunding campaign, raising $12,000 for Moe’s legal fees, arguing he’s a scapegoat for Myanmar’s junta to deflect from its faltering quake response. “John spoke what he believed, not to harm,” the group posted on X. Conversely, Thailand’s National Earthquake Committee issued a statement on April 25, warning against “baseless predictions” that could disrupt cross-border aid.
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Human Rights Watch escalated its criticism on April 26, with deputy Asia director Bryony Lau calling Moe’s prosecution “a chilling message to silence dissent.” She linked it to the junta’s broader crackdown, noting 23 arrests for sharing Moe’s video. The UN’s Myanmar rapporteur, Tom Andrews, told Al Jazeera that such measures “undermine trust in governance,” especially as the junta blocks aid to rebel-held quake zones.
His video’s impact was undeniable. In Mandalay, social media footage showed markets deserted on April 21, with vendors like Ko Naing telling Reuters, “We lost a day’s income because customers believed John.” The junta claims Moe’s prediction cost the economy $1.2 million in disrupted commerce, though independent economists question this figure.
A Nation on Edge
Moe’s case unfolds against Myanmar’s broader crises: a civil war displacing 3 million, a humanitarian shortfall with 20 million needing aid, and a junta struggling(‘s civil war displacing 3 million, a humanitarian shortfall with 20 million needing aid, and a junta criticized for blocking aid to rebel-held areas. The March 28 quake, Myanmar’s deadliest since 1912, exposed these fault lines, with 70% of Naypyitaw’s government buildings damaged and relief efforts hampered by ongoing conflict.
As Moe’s trial looms, his story resonates globally, spotlighting the power of social media in fragile states. Was he a misguided mystic or a dangerous opportunist? With aftershocks rumbling and Myanmar’s future uncertain, John Moe The’s saga is far from over.
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