This two-part series on India–China relations has been written by Dr. Annapurna Nautiyal, former Vice-Chancellor of Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal Central University, Srinagar, Garhwal, Uttarakhand. A noted academic with decades of engagement in political science and international relations, Dr. Nautiyal brings a nuanced perspective on the evolving dynamics between India and China.
BY Annpurna Nautiyal
India and China’s geopolitical rivalry for supremacy is very well known. India’s aspirations for pledging a place in world politics and countering Chinese moves aimed to sabotage India’s claim as a rising power can be cited as an example of this ongoing, intense, and increasing struggle. The Galwan Valley military clashes between the two in May–June 2020 in the border areas for the first time saw gunshots fired after a gap of nearly 50 years, with casualties from both sides. The armies fought along India-China border areas near Pangong Lake in Ladakh, the border between Sikkim and the Tibetan Autonomous Region, as well as locations in eastern Ladakh along the LAC (Line of Actual Control).
Though the Galwan military clash originated due to Chinese objections to India’s road construction activity in the Galwan Valley, China’s military modernisation under Xi Jinping — with a hike in the defence budget by 7.2 percent totalling $245 billion — has invited more serious challenges for India in border security and regional balance, as they share a long and troubled boundary. China has already built new roads, airstrips, and bases in Tibet and Xinjiang, for better mobility and operational capabilities of its army, navy, and air force.
India has deployed advanced missiles like BrahMos, Rafale fighter jets and strengthened its high-altitude warfare units, along with infrastructure development — construction of all-weather roads, bridges, and airbases in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. But the Indian defence budget is still much less than China’s. India’s present infrastructure, its reach and connectivity with neighbours are no match to China’s infrastructural development and various corridors for connectivity and expansion.
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India’s problems of poor infrastructure and socio-economic development have allowed observers to opine that India can either accept Chinese primacy or develop deep partnerships with the US and Japan against China’s advances, which seems impossible under the changing geopolitical scenario. Since India’s preference for its “strategic autonomy” deters it from a formal defence alliance with the US, therefore, in the current setting, it is being suggested to explore other options or create new alliances. India’s presidency of BRICS could see such changes taking place for the good of all and with consensus.
However, US President Donald Trump’s imposition of the highest trade tariffs on India has given birth to an otherwise unthinkable possibility of China and India coming together to confront such oppressive policies, despite various suspicions. This includes Russia also, as its war with Ukraine has become a serious concern for the US and European countries, and stern sanctions have been imposed on Russia. Such a possibility seemed to be taking shape in the aftermath of the 17th BRICS summit held in Rio de Janeiro on July 6–7, 2025, wherein the BRICS group announced their resolve against terrorism and political, military, and economic pressures and uncertainties in a world full of multiple challenges.
Though Chinese President Xi Jinping did not participate in this summit and Russian President Vladimir Putin also joined online, in the joint statement the BRICS warned against the rise in US tariffs. US President Donald Trump very quickly responded that he would punish countries who joined the grouping and aligned themselves with anti-American policies with an additional tariff of 10 percent, and some would be slapped with 25 to 40 percent tariffs.
Trump’s Tariff Tantrums
As a consequence of this, a 50 percent tariff (25 percent from August 7, 2025 and 25 percent from August end) has been imposed on India for the first time, due to its continuous import of Russian oil and failure of commercial trade negotiations because of India’s clear policy of not opening its agriculture, farm, and dairy sectors for US imports. Such a non-compromising attitude of India has angered US President Trump so much that he has imposed the harshest tariffs on India. Trump, who considers India the “King of Tariffs,” is totally opposed to India’s oil imports from Russia as he feels that by its large imports of oil from Russia, India is financing the Russian war with Ukraine — something he wants to stop at any cost to earn a Nobel Peace Prize.
Though Trump has also claimed that India is quite close to China in imports of Russian oil, tariffs are yet to be imposed on China. Tariffs have also been proclaimed for Brazil (50 percent), Laos, Cambodia, Bangladesh, China (30 percent), Pakistan (19 percent), Sri Lanka and other countries in the range of 50 to 10 percent, but they are yet to be imposed. In view of this, the US policy of tariffs on India seems targeted to just isolate and penalise India for its non-compromising stance on trade talks with America and its close relations with Russia.
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The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on August 19, 2025 admitted that US President Trump had imposed sanctions on India to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Justifying US sanctions, India was accused of profiteering by reselling Russian oil while sparing China for the same because China had diversified its imports from other sources also. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also falsely claimed that China’s imports from Russia only increased 3 percent post Russia-Ukraine war, whereas India imported over 40 percent to resell for profit.
This claim was negated by India’s Foreign Minister during his recent visit to Russia, stating that India was not the biggest importer, but China. Therefore, the statements coming from Washington clearly indicate that India has been made a scapegoat to settle scores with Russia. But India, determined to face the damages to its economy, has preferred to protect its national interests, which lie in Russian oil imports to sustain its industry and growth, even at the cost of strained relations with the US, which is India’s biggest trading partner and supplier of 51 percent of oil and gas.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia were minimal up to 2022 because the Middle East was the main source, but with the Russia-Ukraine war and imposition of sanctions on Russia by the US, EU, Japan, and other countries, Russian oil became cheaper than Middle Eastern oil for India and other countries, including China. Therefore, the imports also increased.
This presents a very tricky situation. If India crumbles under US pressure not to buy crude oil from Russia, then it will not only compromise its national interests but also endanger its long-established friendship and relationship with Russia. But sticking only to Russia for oil imports has already endangered Indo-US relations, which were otherwise getting stronger.
Before imposing the 25 percent tariff on India and the extra retaliatory tariff of 25 percent, Trump also humiliated both India and Russia by mockingly telling the world that the US has done very little business with India, but India imports the vast majority of its military equipment and oil from Russia. Therefore, he is not bothered to see what the “dead economies” of Russia and India would do in the future.
Contradicting the “dead economy” jibe, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal informed Parliament that India has risen from 11th to one of the top five economies, becoming self-sufficient, slated to beat Japan to become the fourth-largest economy and very soon expected to become the third-largest economy, as per International Monetary Fund estimates.
Trump’s stand took everyone, including India, by surprise because Trump had earlier expressed confidence about a trade deal with India but then announced tariffs. India is clear that targeting it is unjustified and unreasonable, and it will take necessary steps to safeguard its national interests and economic security. India has also pointed out the double standards of the US and EU, as both have continued their trade relations with Russia — to which Trump reacted that he had no knowledge of it.
The US tariffs are going to affect the apparel, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, petrochemicals industries as well as perishable products like shrimp. The scene was expected to change after US President Trump and President Putin’s much-hyped Alaska summit on August 15, 2025, but it concluded with no deal and no clarity on secondary tariffs, only ending the past three years of diplomatic isolation of Russia.
Putin neither budged from his stand of NATO’s retreat from Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s non-admission to NATO, nor acceptance of a ceasefire until Russia’s security goals are met and a fair balance in Europe and the world is restored, because Ukraine’s interests cannot compete with Russia’s. It will be Ukraine and Europe’s call to end or not to end the war. Putin dashed Trump’s hopes of an immediate ceasefire, but reporters were informed that both Presidents had made some headway.
Trump also heaped praise on Putin by accepting that he always had a fantastic relationship with the Russian President and proclaimed that the US was the number one power and Russia number two, to which Putin responded that both of them had established very good, businesslike, and trustworthy contact and maybe they would meet again sometime in Moscow.
Post-Alaska Summit: Coming Together of Russia, India, and China
Trump’s warning of serious consequences if the meeting ended without Putin’s commitment to end the war also dissipated, with the absence of any public discussion on secondary sanctions against countries that buy Russian oil. This has confused India, as the Trump administration had earlier warned that if the talks scheduled for August 15, 2025, did not go well, the secondary tariffs on India could go higher. Yet nothing was announced for either Russia or India. Trump’s subsequent meeting with Ukraine’s President, along with other European leaders after this summit, indicated the possibility of a ceasefire, as Trump exhibited willingness to arrange trilateral talks between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, and to provide security guarantees to Ukraine through Europe in exchange for the surrender of areas under Russian control as per Putin’s condition. However, Putin’s actions towards Ukraine and Trump’s position on a trilateral summit are not giving positive signals.
Meanwhile, the Russian envoy to India hinted at the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Modi, Xi Jinping, and Putin very soon to discuss strategies to confront such challenges. The Russian envoy also described the sanctions as unjustified, pressure tactics, deception, and disrespect for the national interests of a country like India, which the U.S. considers a close friend. The emphasis on regional stability, dependent on the relationship among the three big countries of the region—Russia, India, and China—clearly signaled the emergence of new possibilities under Trump’s trade war, despite many suspicions and differences between India and China.
This has also allowed India to strengthen its time-tested, decades-old relationship with Russia. India’s National Security Advisor Shri Ajit Doval and India’s Foreign Minister, after their recent visits to Russia, confirmed that President Putin will very soon visit India. Prime Minister Modi also held telephonic conversations with President Putin on matters of mutual interest, and Putin also called Modi after the Alaska summit. Putin further spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping after his conversation with Modi. China expressed happiness over Prime Minister Modi’s forthcoming visit to China for the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) meeting in Tianjin, scheduled from August 31 to September 1, 2025. Meanwhile, both Russia and China announced they would import Indian products amidst the U.S. tariff war on India, providing some relief to New Delhi. Modi’s visit to China will be his first in seven years to hold bilateral talks with Xi Jinping, and with Russian President Putin’s plan to hold a trilateral summit in the wake of the U.S. trade war on all three, a new equation is emerging among the most affected countries.
The above scenario clearly highlights the circumstances and America’s neo-conservative policies under which these new developments are taking place. Prior to this, during the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, held on October 23, 2024, India and China had agreed on a patrolling arrangement along the disputed Ladakh border after four years of tense relations. This declaration emphasized equitable global governance, peace-building, and enhanced cooperation among Global South nations. It was attended by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, where both pledged to reduce tensions along the border and to make good use of the Special Representative Mechanism (SRM) on the India-China border issue, constituted to promote a peaceful, diplomatic, and fair solution to the matter.
The Chinese side also stressed an increased focus on development as a shared goal, encouraging China and India to see each other as development partners rather than threats. They further agreed to disengage troops at friction points along the LAC and to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra from the summer of 2025. Though this does not signal that Indo-China relations have normalized after the Galwan conflict, this shift reflects national interests, as all four major BRICS countries are sailing in the same boat. Therefore, unity among them is the need of the hour.
(Part Two To Follow)
