The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell sharply, hit by rising crude costs, FII outflows, and inflation worries. Analysts warn oil could climb further if the conflict escalates, keeping pressure on import-heavy economies like India.
BY PC Bureau
March 30, 2026 — Global oil prices extended their sharp rally on Monday, with Brent Crude climbing toward the $115–116 per barrel range, while Indian equities remained under pressure amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions linked to the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Brent futures rose roughly 2.5–3% in early trade, hovering near $115.22–115.90 per barrel. The surge caps one of the steepest monthly rallies in decades, with prices up nearly 50% since the start of March—surpassing spikes seen during earlier geopolitical crises.
Supply Shock Drives Oil Rally
The latest spike is being fuelled by persistent attacks on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that handles about one-fifth of global oil flows. Disruptions, coupled with stalled diplomatic efforts, have tightened supply expectations and injected a strong geopolitical premium into crude prices.
READ: Trump Calls ‘Regime” has Changed in Iran; Deal to End War “Could be Soon”.
Indian Markets Reel Under Pressure
Back home, the impact has been swift. The BSE Sensex closed Friday at 73,583.22, down 1,690 points (2.25%), while the Nifty 50 ended at 22,819.60, losing over 2%. Early indicators suggest continued weakness, with futures pointing to a subdued start for the week.
The sell-off reflects mounting concerns over India’s vulnerability to rising crude costs. As one of the world’s largest oil importers, higher prices translate into a widening current account deficit, elevated inflation risks, and pressure on corporate margins.
NEW: Brent oil price reaches $116 per barrel, as Trump weighs taking Iran’s Kharg Island.
WTI crude oil is now forecast to reach $148 per barrel this year, according to @Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/XmTVW0eJQi
— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) March 30, 2026
Currency, Flows Add to Headwinds
The Indian rupee has also weakened in recent sessions, amplifying market stress. Heavy outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who have pulled billions amid global uncertainty, have further dragged equities lower. Rate-sensitive sectors such as banking and automobiles, along with oil marketing companies, have borne the brunt of the decline.
Geopolitics at the Core
The escalation in tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran since late February has reshaped global energy dynamics. Repeated strikes on tankers and energy infrastructure have forced insurers to reassess risk and reroute shipments, deepening the supply crunch.
Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, Brent crude could test $150 per barrel in the coming months. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate has also surged, trading well above $100 per barrel.
Outlook: Volatility Ahead
With no immediate resolution in sight, markets are bracing for continued volatility. Any signs of de-escalation could trigger a relief rally in equities and ease oil prices. Conversely, further escalation may intensify pressure on both global and domestic markets.
For India, the twin shock of surging crude and falling equities underscores the economy’s exposure to global energy disruptions. Investors will now track geopolitical developments closely, alongside domestic cues such as central bank signals and upcoming earnings, for direction in the days ahead
