Russian oil imports fell sharply in January as Indian refiners shifted toward Middle Eastern, Latin American, and US crude amid geopolitical pressures and evolving trade dynamics.
BY PC Bureau
February 18, 2026: With US-India trade deal mandating complete roll back on oil purchases from Russia, January 2026 data reveals a sharp pivot in India’s sourcing strategy as the world’s third-largest crude importer and consumer.
Russian crude hit its lowest share of India’s imports since late 2022, plummeting to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd)—just 21.2% of the basket. This marks a 23.5% drop from December and one-third below last year, per Reuters-cited figures.
The shift reverses 2022’s post-Ukraine invasion surge, when discounted Russian barrels catapulted from under 1% to a peak near 40%, dominating India’s energy mix.
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India’s crude imports from Russia fell to 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2026 — the lowest volume since November 2022 and the smallest share since October 2022.
What changed:
After the 2022 Ukraine invasion, India… pic.twitter.com/TbJvirFLgF— Naeem Aslam (@NaeemAslam23) February 18, 2026
Tighter Western sanctions, U.S. trade pressures, and geopolitics have forced New Delhi’s hand. Analysts project Russian flows dipping to ~800,000 bpd by March, though not halting entirely.
China has eclipsed India as Russia’s top seaborne buyer, with February shipments forecast at 2.07 million bpd—up from January’s 1.7 million—per Vortexa Analytics.
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Indian refiners are offsetting losses via the Middle East (55% of January imports), Latin America (12-month high at 10%), and the West. Saudi Arabia reclaimed top-supplier status with February record highs (Kpler data), lifting OPEC’s basket share to an 11-month peak.
India’s evolving crude oil purchases are increasingly intertwined with its broader trade negotiations with the United States. As part of an interim trade arrangement, Washington agreed to roll back punitive tariffs on certain Indian exports, easing trade tensions and creating momentum toward a larger bilateral deal. In this context, New Delhi has taken steps to reduce its dependence on discounted Russian oil, signaling its willingness to align energy sourcing decisions with strategic and economic priorities.
While India has not publically not committed to ending Russian imports, the decline in volumes reflects a careful balancing act between securing affordable energy and strengthening ties with the United States, one of its most important economic and geopolitical partners.
Indian officials have emphasized that crude procurement decisions are driven primarily by market conditions and national interest. However, the gradual shift toward Middle Eastern and Western suppliers suggests that trade diplomacy, financial sanctions, and strategic considerations are increasingly shaping India’s oil import patterns, reflecting its emergence as a major global power navigating complex economic and geopolitical realities.
