Exit polls: NDA well-placed in Maha, has edge in Jharkhand

Maharashtra’s Mahayuti alliance appears poised for a victory, projected to secure 150 seats, surpassing the 145-seat majority threshold. Meanwhile, Jharkhand could witness a nail-biting finish, with the NDA and INDIA bloc separated by just one seat in projections. Exit polls show a fragmented political landscape in both states, promising an intense verdict on counting day.

By PC Bureau

The aggregate of nine exit polls suggests a likely NDA victory in Maharashtra and a close contest in Jharkhand, where the final outcome might result in a split verdict.

Maharashtra: Mahayuti Leads the Way

• The ruling Mahayuti alliance, which includes Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and the BJP, is projected to secure around 150 seats.
• The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress—may win 125 seats.
• The majority mark in the 288-member assembly is 145 seats.

Key projections from pollsters:

1. People’s Pulse: Mahayuti: 182, MVA: 97, Others: 9
2. Matrize: Mahayuti: 150-170, MVA: 110-130, Others: 8-10
3. News 24-Chanakya: Mahayuti: 152-160, MVA: 130-138, Others: 6-8
4. P-Marq: Mahayuti: 137-157, MVA: 126-146, Others: 2-8

Jharkhand: Photo Finish Expected

• The NDA could fall slightly short of the 41-seat majority, with an estimated 39 seats.
• The INDIA bloc, led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress, trails closely with 38 seats.

Notable pollster predictions:

1. Matrize: NDA: 42-47, INDIA: 25-30, Others: 1-4
2. People’s Pulse: NDA: 44-53, INDIA: 25-37, Others: 5-9
3. Dainik Bhaskar: NDA: 37-40, INDIA: 36-39
4. Axis My India: INDIA: 53, NDA: 25, Others: 3

Factors Influencing the Predictions

1. Maharashtra:
   • Recent political turmoil, including splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP, has created uncertainty.
   • The Mahayuti’s welfare schemes, such as “Ladli Behen”, reportedly swayed women voters, countering sympathy for opposition leaders Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
2. Jharkhand:
   • The state remains unpredictable, with exit polls diverging sharply.
   • Ground-level sentiments suggest a possible shift, but no decisive trend has emerged.

Caution on Exit Polls

The accuracy of exit polls remains uncertain, as demonstrated by the Haryana elections last month, where actual results defied predictions.

The final results, scheduled for November 23, 2024, will determine if the projections hold true or if surprises await.