Amid a backdrop of chaos and bloodshed, Mozambique’s top electoral court has reaffirmed the ruling ’party’s decades-long grip on power, cementing Daniel Chapo as the next president in a contentious ruling that has left the nation simmering with tension. With weeks of deadly protests already leaving a trail of destruction, fears of further unrest loom large over the country.
Maputo is now on fire
After ignoring glaring issues around election fraud in Mozambique, toll gates have been set ablaze and
“Many areas of the city and province of #Maputo have roads blocked by barricades and burning tires, following the proclamation of the election results… pic.twitter.com/dwK64x2FTY— TechMagTv (@TechMagZW) December 23, 2024
On Monday, judges from Mozambique’s Constitutional Council declared Chapo the winner of the October elections, albeit with a revised share of 65 percent of the vote, down from the initially reported 70 percent. The opposition candidate, Venancio Mondlane, saw his tally adjusted to 24 percent—far from the 53 percent he claims to have won. The announcement has done little to pacify Mondlane’s supporters, who allege widespread electoral fraud and have threatened to escalate their protests.
For a nation of 34 million, this election has proven deeply divisive. Since the October 9 polls, the streets have been overtaken by protests, many led by disillusioned youth rallying around Mondlane’s calls for change. Demonstrators have faced a brutal crackdown from security forces, with rights groups reporting death tolls ranging between 110 and 130. The violence shows no signs of abating.
What Sparked the Controversy?
The election saw Daniel Chapo, a relative newcomer, catapulted to the presidency under the banner of the ruling Frelimo party, which has governed Mozambique since its independence from Portugal in 1975. Despite his landslide win, allegations of fraud have cast a shadow over his victory.
Mondlane’s party, Podemos, has become a voice for the country’s youth—56 percent of whom are under 19—many of whom feel abandoned by a government they see as out of touch. High unemployment, economic stagnation, and the ongoing armed insurgency in northern Mozambique have fueled their dissatisfaction. Critics argue that Frelimo, once revered as a liberation movement, has grown complacent, relying on its historical legacy rather than addressing the urgent needs of the present.
Compounding the nation’s troubles, northern provinces like Cabo Delgado have been ravaged by attacks from the al-Shabab armed group, as well as devastating cyclones. The latest, Cyclone Chido, struck in December, leaving nearly 100 dead and further exacerbating the region’s struggles with disease and hunger.
The post-election result announcement in Mozambique has triggered a violent backlash across the country, with some Mozambicans burning tyres and setting things on fire in protest against the Constitutional Council’s declaration of Frelimo’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, as the winner. pic.twitter.com/hZbbohLoYD
— Hopewell Chin’ono (@daddyhope) December 23, 2024
Protests and Bloodshed
Even before official results were announced, Mondlane denounced the process, accusing the government of intimidation, ballot-stuffing, and outright manipulation. His supporters poured into the streets, targeting police stations and government buildings while clashing with security forces. The government responded with live ammunition, escalating the violence and deepening the crisis.
Mondlane’s accusations gained traction when two prominent Podemos figures were assassinated in October. Although authorities denied involvement, many saw the killings as politically motivated, further inflaming tensions. Mondlane has since fled the country, but his online calls for resistance continue to galvanize his followers.
The scale of unrest has drawn comparisons to Mozambique’s civil war, with activists labeling it the worst violence in over 30 years. Amnesty International reports that over 3,500 people have been arrested, while sporadic internet blackouts have sought to disrupt protest organizers. Meanwhile, international observers, including the European Union, have raised concerns about the legitimacy of the elections, citing irregularities and intimidation.
Economic Fallout
The unrest has taken a heavy toll on Mozambique’s economy. Businesses in major cities like Maputo have shuttered, and tourism—a vital source of revenue—has plummeted. Ponta do Ouro, a popular resort town, has seen cancellations soar, with occupancy rates dropping below 40 percent.
Regional trade has also suffered. South Africa temporarily closed its borders in November after violence spilled over, with Mozambican officials seeking refuge on the South African side. Meanwhile, landlocked neighbors like Zimbabwe have rerouted cargo away from Mozambique’s ports, further straining the economy.
The International Monetary Fund has slashed Mozambique’s growth forecast from 5 percent to 4.3 percent, warning that continued instability could lead to further downgrades.
What Lies Ahead?
The Constitutional Council’s ruling is final, but it has done little to quell dissent. Analysts predict that Frelimo will struggle to govern effectively, with its legitimacy undermined both domestically and abroad. Critics point to the party’s increasing reliance on military force as a sign of its waning support.
For Mondlane and his supporters, the fight is far from over. Though he remains in exile, his calls for resistance resonate across the nation. However, with state prosecutors charging him with inciting violence and demanding millions in damages, his return seems unlikely.
“The ruling may be legal, but it’s not legitimate,” said Adriano Nuvunga, director of Mozambique’s Center for Democracy and Human Rights. “Frelimo is confirmed, but governing will be an uphill battle.”
As the country braces for what comes next, one thing is clear: Mozambique stands at a crossroads. Whether it moves toward reconciliation or descends further into chaos will depend on how its leaders—and its people—choose to navigate these turbulent times.
