BY PC Bureau
April 24, 2025 – In an escalation of tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan announced on Thursday the immediate suspension of all trade with India and the closure of its airspace to Indian-owned and Indian-operated airlines. The decision, described as a response to India’s recent punitive measures following a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, marks a significant deterioration in bilateral relations, already strained by decades of mistrust and conflict.
The announcement came after a high-level National Security Committee meeting chaired by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. The Pakistani government also declared that any attempt by India to divert or obstruct the flow of water under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an “act of war,” signaling a readiness to respond with “full force.”
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Tit-for-Tat Retaliation
Pakistan’s measures follow India’s decision on Wednesday to downgrade diplomatic ties with Islamabad and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank that governs the sharing of the Indus River system’s waters. India’s actions were prompted by a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on Tuesday, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians in one of the deadliest civilian attacks in the region in nearly two decades. India has blamed Pakistan for harboring terrorists responsible for the attack, a charge Islamabad vehemently denies.
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In addition to suspending trade and closing its airspace, Pakistan has shut the Wagah border crossing, the only operational land route between the two nations, halting all cross-border transit. The government also expelled Indian military, naval, and air advisors from its High Commission in Islamabad, declaring them persona non grata, and reduced the staff strength of the Indian High Commission to 30 by April 30. These steps mirror India’s earlier expulsion of Pakistani military attaches and the closure of the Attari-Wagah border post.
#BREAKING Pakistan shuts down airspace for all Indian owned and Indian operated airlines
Pakistan declares Indian Defense, Air and Naval attaché Persona non Grata
Pakistan closes Wagah border, shuts all transit trade with India
– TheInsiderPaper pic.twitter.com/qShJgObsF8
— War Intel (@warintel4u) April 24, 2025
Economic and Diplomatic Fallout
The suspension of trade, which includes goods passing through Pakistan to or from third countries, is expected to disrupt supply chains and affect businesses on both sides. The closure of the Wagah border, a key trade and transit point, will further strain economic ties, already limited due to longstanding political hostilities. Pakistan’s decision to close its airspace will force Indian airlines to reroute flights, potentially increasing costs and travel times for passengers traveling to Europe, North America, and West Asia.
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Analysts warn that the airspace closure could have a significant economic impact, recalling a similar closure in 2019 following the Balakot airstrikes, which cost Indian airlines millions of dollars due to rerouting and fuel stops. Pakistan’s aviation sector, already fragile, may also face revenue losses from navigation and overflight fees, which amounted to an estimated $100 million during the 2019 closure.
Indus Waters Treaty: A Flashpoint
Pakistan’s strong rhetoric regarding the Indus Waters Treaty underscores the treaty’s critical importance to its agriculture-dependent economy, which supports over 240 million people. Islamabad has rejected India’s suspension of the treaty as “unilateral, unjust, and politically motivated,” arguing that it violates a binding international agreement. The Pakistani government has warned that any interference with its water rights as a lower riparian state would be met with severe consequences.
India, however, has defended its decision, citing Pakistan’s alleged failure to curb cross-border terrorism as justification for reevaluating bilateral agreements. The suspension of the treaty signals a shift in India’s approach, leveraging its position as an upper riparian state to pressure Pakistan.
Regional and International Implications
The tit-for-tat measures have pushed India-Pakistan relations to a new low, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation. Both nations have suspended key bilateral agreements, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, which Pakistan has declared “in abeyance” until India ceases what it calls “cross-border terrorism” and adheres to UN resolutions on Kashmir.
The international community has called for restraint, with analysts noting that the closure of airspace and trade routes could disrupt regional connectivity and commerce. The United States and other global powers are likely to monitor the situation closely, given the strategic importance of South Asia and the nuclear capabilities of both nations.
This is not the first time Pakistan has closed its airspace or suspended trade with India. In 2019, following India’s airstrikes on a terrorist camp in Balakot and the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370, Pakistan imposed similar restrictions, which lasted several months and caused significant economic losses. The current measures, however, are broader in scope, encompassing third-country trade and signaling a more aggressive posture.
As both nations dig in, the path to de-escalation remains unclear. Prime Minister Sharif’s government has reiterated its commitment to defending Pakistan’s sovereignty and condemning terrorism, while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to “identify, track, and punish” those responsible for the Pahalgam attack and their backers.
The closure of trade routes, airspace, and diplomatic channels has deepened the divide between India and Pakistan, with immediate consequences for their economies and citizens. As tensions simmer, the international community faces the challenge of mediating between two rivals with a long history of conflict. For now, the region braces for the ripple effects of this latest chapter in a decades-long rivalry.
