Trump’s rising odds have captured the attention of financial markets, where investors are closely monitoring potential impacts on policy and economic forecasts. With the election outcome still uncertain, political analysts and market players alike are keeping a sharp eye on these shifting dynamics.
By PC Bureau
Prediction markets are favoring a decisive victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election, with blockchain-based platform Polymarket leading the charge. On Polymarket, Trump is predicted to take key swing states, including Arizona, where he holds a commanding 70% chance, and Michigan, where he edges ahead with a 56% to 44% advantage over Harris. These states, crucial for their electoral votes, are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the election outcome.
Also Read: Trump takes early lead, but Harris still in race
Polymarket has seen a surge in activity, with one notable bet of approximately $26 million on Trump’s reelection sparking speculation about potential market manipulation. This significant wager underscores the heightened financial stakes tied to the election, especially within digital assets.
Other platforms are similarly reflecting a strong lead for Trump. New York-based Kalshi, a legal U.S. prediction platform, shows Trump leading Harris by an 85% to 15% margin—marking a major shift from earlier in the week. PredictIt, which has tilted slightly more in Harris’s favor, still places Trump at a 77% to 32% advantage. Meanwhile, retail platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, offering election betting through ForecastEx, assign Trump an 82% likelihood of winning.
International sites Betfair and Smarkets, closed to American users, also show Trump leading, with odds favoring him by 82% and 81%, respectively. By early poll closures at 6 p.m. EST, aggregated betting markets, including Betfair, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket, and Smarkets, gave Trump a 79.1% chance of victory, according to Election Betting Odds.
As financial markets track these developments closely, both investors and analysts are braced for the possible economic and policy impacts that a Trump win might bring, with the election’s outcome still unfolding and dynamics evolving.
