The upcoming US elections are fast approaching, with candidates and voters preparing for what is expected to be an exciting display of democracy with high stakes. Just a few months ago, it appeared pointless for President Joe Biden to challenge former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Then everything took a turn. After Biden withdrew from the race because of increasing pressure and a weak debate showing, Kamala Harris took over and has since boosted her fundraising efforts, participated actively in the second presidential debate, and witnessed her prospects improve in various polls.
Also read: Kamala Harris stands against Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, calls for end to war
Nate Silver’s forecast
The famous American statistician Nate Silver revealed data on September 17 indicating Harris had a 48.9% likelihood of winning the popular vote, nearly a 3% advantage over Trump, who had a 46% chance, as per USA Today. Silver’s predictions suggest that Harris has a 25% probability of winning the popular vote but still losing the Electoral College vote, which is the method the US uses to select the president.
Silver’s forecast indicated that Trump had a 56.2% likelihood of securing the electoral college vote, with Harris lagging behind at 43.5%. The statistician’s forecasts differ from those of his previous employers, FiveThirtyEight, who offered Harris a comforting 61% probability of winning the electoral college vote.
USA Today news & Suffolk University prediction
According to a survey by USA Today news and Suffolk University released on September 16, Harris had a 49% to 46% lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state in the election. A survey of 500 individuals in the state revealed a 4.4% margin of error, indicating that the election in the state is still undecided.
The polls indicated that Harris was ahead of Trump in the national polls with 47.6% to 43.3%, a shift of eight points for the Democrats since Biden withdrew following the initial debate, where Trump had a four-point lead over the US president.
Harris, as mentioned in the poll, has also been able to gain support from young voters and people of colour: she has experienced a 24-point increase in young voters, 18 points among Hispanics, and a 17-point increase among Black voters, as per USA Today.
Also read: Renowned election predictor Allan Licthman predicts a Kamala Harris victory
What Betting markets reveal?
In addition to the many polls, different betting companies are also showing shifts in their betting markets, with many of them predicting Harris as the winner of the presidential election.
Betfair Exchange, a betting platform from the UK, and Polymarket, a platform for crypto-trading and betting, have both forecasted a victory for Harris, showing the vice president ahead of Trump by 5 and 2 points respectively.
