The clock is ticking on the search for pandemic-causing viruses. Researchers are delving into the unknown, mapping potential threats to safeguard humanity from future outbreaks.
By PC Bureau
Scientists are working to uncover the viruses most likely to cause the next pandemic, exploring the vast diversity of pathogens circulating in animal populations. These virus discovery initiatives aim to identify potential threats before they jump to humans, offering a chance to mitigate outbreaks before they occur. The challenge lies in determining where to focus research and how to turn these findings into effective strategies for pandemic prevention.
On one hand, computational tools have revolutionized the analysis of virus discovery data, helping scientists identify novel animal viruses and their hosts with significant zoonotic potential. On the other, preventing pandemics—most of which, like all viral pandemics since the 20th century, originate from animal viruses—requires more than discovery alone, says a report in the American Society of Microbiology.
The report cites Dr. Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University and co-founder of the Viral Emergence Research Initiative (Verena), explaining virus discovery is merely one cog in a much larger system of zoonotic risk mitigation.
As per the report, Dr. Neil Vora, a former CDC epidemic intelligence officer and physician with Conservation International, highlights two main branches of pandemic prevention: primary prevention, which aims to stop spillover events before they occur, and secondary prevention, which focuses on containing disease outbreaks after spillover.
Viral discovery aligns with primary prevention by profiling viruses circulating in animals, assessing their proximity to humans, and understanding how they might evolve to infect people. Insights gained can inform strategies to prevent spillover and aid secondary prevention efforts, such as developing vaccines and diagnostic tools for emerging threats.
As per the report, this dual approach has shaped several initiatives. For example, the USAID-funded PREDICT project (2009–2020) surveyed pathogens from over 160,000 samples, identifying nearly 1,000 new viruses, including novel coronaviruses and an ebolavirus. Such discoveries mapped zoonotic risk, enabling studies on virology and evolution. Building on this model, initiatives like the $125 million DEEP VZN project and NIAID’s CREID program continue to expand global capacity for viral surveillance and risk assessment.
How Scientists Hunt for Viruses
As per the report, virus hunters typically sample blood, feces, or tissues from animals and use molecular tools like PCR or high-throughput sequencing to detect viruses. Key strategies focus on:
- Spillover Hotspots: Areas with high biodiversity undergoing environmental change, such as deforestation and climate-induced habitat shifts, are prime zones for virus discovery. Regions like Southeast Asia, West and Central Africa, and the Amazon Basin see frequent animal-human interactions, increasing spillover risk.
- High-Risk Animal Hosts: Wild mammals, particularly bats, rodents, and primates, account for 76% of known zoonotic viruses. Factors such as genetic relatedness to humans and geographical range make these animals critical targets for virus discovery.
- High-Risk Viruses: RNA viruses, known for their adaptability and genetic variability, are top candidates for spillover. Programs like PREDICT prioritize coronaviruses, filoviruses, paramyxoviruses, and influenza viruses, which have demonstrated pandemic potential.
From Discovery to Action
Identifying a virus is only the first step. Assessing its spillover risk and understanding its behavior in humans is equally crucial. Computational tools like SpillOver rank viruses by zoonotic risk, helping researchers focus on high-priority threats. For example, machine learning models have identified hundreds of bat species that might harbor undiscovered betacoronaviruses, guiding targeted sampling efforts.
Such technologies enable scientists to predict which viruses could pose real threats, paving the way for preemptive development of diagnostics, treatments, and vaccines.
As per the report, despite advancements, virus discovery alone cannot prevent pandemics. Historical cases, like the warnings from SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, show that identifying potential threats is not enough if coordinated action fails. Some viruses will inevitably elude detection.
To reduce spillover risk, experts advocate for holistic strategies, including regulating wildlife trade, reducing deforestation, and improving livestock infection control. Strengthening health systems in emerging disease hotspots is equally vital for secondary prevention when outbreaks occur.
As Dr. Christine Johnson from UC Davis’s One Health Institute points out, virus discovery must integrate into broader frameworks that unify human and animal health efforts while addressing environmental drivers of zoonotic risk. A balanced approach—combining primary prevention, surveillance, and healthcare preparedness—offers the best chance of mitigating future pandemics.
“If we neglect any of these components, we leave ourselves vulnerable,” warns Dr. Vora. Only by addressing all facets of zoonotic risk can we hope to prevent the next pandemic.
