With 91 wins out of 101 seats, BJP has the arithmetic to form a government without JD(U), but political calculations suggest a cautious approach rather than an abrupt leadership change.
BY Navin Upadhyay
Patna, November 14: As election trends settle into a clear pattern, the central question dominating Bihar’s political landscape is no longer who will form the government — the NDA comfortably has the numbers — but who will lead it. With the BJP delivering one of its strongest-ever performances and its smaller allies sweeping their pockets of influence, speculation is swirling over whether the party might attempt to replace Nitish Kumar and install its own Chief Minister.
But despite the overwhelming arithmetic in its favour, a bold move to sideline Nitish now appears politically risky, and not one the BJP is likely to take immediately.
BJP’s Stunning Tally Creates a Window — On Paper
The BJP has shocked political observers with its strike rate of 91 wins out of the 101 seats it contested, a performance unmatched by any party in this election. Alongside it, Chirag Paswan’s LJP(R) continues its rapid ascent, with Upendra Kushwaha’s RLD and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM adding to the NDA’s heft.
Together, Chirag, Kushwaha and Manjhi have delivered 28 seats, taking the NDA’s combined tally to 119 seats — independent of JD(U). This number places the BJP-led alliance tantalisingly close to the halfway mark even without Nitish Kumar’s party.
With only a handful of defections from the Opposition, the NDA’s numbers could comfortably rise above 122, allowing the BJP to form a government without JD(U) and without Nitish Kumar.
And if the BJP ever wanted to install its own Chief Minister in Bihar, this is the moment where the arithmetic lines up.
Nitish At the Mercy of Allies, BJP Can Form Govt Without Him https://t.co/abh18SMxmt #BiharElections2025 #CMRace #NDAMajority#ChiragPaswan #NitishKumar #BJPLead
— POWER CORRIDORS (@power_corridors) November 14, 2025
Technically Possible, Politically Dangerous
But while the numbers make the idea feasible, the politics make it highly unlikely.
Even with a stupendous victory, the BJP knows that attempting to “manage” a few MLAs from the Opposition benches to stabilise an NDA government minus Nitish would carry huge political costs. Nitish Kumar’s support base — particularly women and Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) voters — could see such a move as a betrayal.
For two decades, Nitish has cultivated these constituencies with targeted welfare schemes and a governance-first image. Removing him abruptly could alienate:
- Lakhs of women voters who credit him with safety, educational incentives, and reservations
- EBC communities who view him as the strongest political guarantor of their upward mobility
These groups don’t shift allegiances easily — and the backlash could be sharp, emotional, and long-lasting. The BJP is fully aware that antagonising these blocs risks disturbing the social coalition that delivered such a strong mandate.
Moreover, an aggressive push to unseat Nitish could destabilise the NDA itself, triggering internal friction and unnecessary turmoil at a moment when the alliance projects unity.
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BJP’s Logic: Don’t Fix What’s Working
For the BJP, the priority is consolidating its gains, not unsettling the voters who contributed to this unprecedented sweep. Nitish may hold fewer seats, but he remains an asset in maintaining caste equilibrium and administrative stability.
Replacing him now would contradict the message the NDA carried throughout the campaign: continuity, stability, and coordinated development under PM Narendra Modi’s broader leadership.
Even during campaigning, the BJP never projected Nitish as the CM candidate — but it also did not project anyone else. The ambiguity was strategic, giving the party flexibility without alienating Nitish’s loyalists.
The More Likely Scenario: Replace Later, Not Now
What appears far more probable is a two-step transition, not an immediate coup:
- Nitish Kumar will be installed again as Chief Minister
This maintains alliance stability, keeps his voter base intact, and prevents unnecessary backlash. - A carefully timed transition a year or so later
Once the political climate is conducive, and public sentiment has shifted towards accepting a BJP-led leadership, the alliance may gradually move Nitish out — possibly to a national role, governorship, or a position he can accept without humiliation.
This slow, calibrated shift allows the BJP to take control of Bihar without risking the social base that brought them to power.
A Transition, Not a Takeover
The BJP has grabbed the key to power — but it knows the door cannot be slammed on Nitish abruptly. The party will act with caution, not aggression. Nitish remains important to the NDA’s caste arithmetic, its social outreach, and its governance credibility.
For now, the BJP may hold the reins, but Nitish Kumar will still be handed the steering wheel — at least until the political road ahead is smooth enough for a change of driver.
In Bihar, as always, the numbers matter. But the timing matters even more.
