After a sharp sell-off on hopes of de-escalation, crude prices surged again when Iran denied holding talks with Washington, underscoring the extreme volatility driven by the conflict.
BY PC Bureau
March 24, 2026 — Brent crude rose sharply on Tuesday, climbing back above the key $100-a-barrel mark, as markets reacted to conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over US President Donald Trump’s claim that “very good and productive” talks had taken place with Iran and that planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure had been paused for five days.
The benchmark Brent contract gained as much as 3.9% during the session, trading around $102.84 to $103.84 a barrel by late trade. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also advanced 3.5% to 3.7%, hovering near $91.20.
The rebound came a day after oil prices fell sharply, with Brent sliding more than 8% to 12% on Monday and briefly dropping below $100 a barrel. The decline followed Trump’s surprise social media post, which raised hopes of a possible diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict.
Brent crude oil jumped back above $100 per barrel on Tuesday amid continuing uncertainty after Iranian officials urged defiance as US President Trump claimed he was in talks with Iran, which officials in Tehran denied.
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/UuHLL45Nmh pic.twitter.com/5OHzKv1phv
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 24, 2026
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Trump said the United States and Iran had held constructive discussions over the previous two days “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” He said the talks had led him to direct the Department of Defense to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy facilities for five days, describing the exchanges as positive in both “tenor and tone.”
Trump later told reporters that Iran had reached out in an effort to avert the strikes and suggested that a deal could emerge quickly. He also said such an agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments that has been severely disrupted since the conflict escalated. The US President further claimed that Iran had agreed it would “never have a nuclear weapon.”
The announcement initially sparked a wave of relief in financial markets. Oil prices tumbled, with Brent falling into the mid-$90s and WTI slipping to around $88-$90, while US equities rallied.
That optimism faded quickly, however, after Iranian officials firmly denied that any negotiations had taken place.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump’s remarks as “fake news,” accusing Washington of trying to manipulate oil and financial markets while diverting attention from mounting pressure on the US and Israel. Iran’s Foreign Ministry also denied that any talks had taken place between Tehran and Washington, and accused the United States of using such rhetoric to push down energy prices while buying time for possible military action.
Some Iranian state media outlets portrayed Trump’s decision to pause strikes as a retreat in the face of Tehran’s threats to target infrastructure across the region if further attacks were carried out.
Iran’s denial renewed fears of prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies, helping drive Tuesday’s rebound in crude prices. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes, remains a central concern for traders, with shipping flows still heavily affected by the conflict.
Market volatility intensifies
Oil markets have swung wildly since the US-Israel conflict with Iran escalated in late February 2026. Brent has moved from about $70 a barrel before the war to peaks above $119, reflecting fears of deeper supply disruptions.
READ: Trump’s Claim, Denial, and the Mystery Over His Iran Contact
Monday’s steep decline, followed by Tuesday’s rebound, marked one of the sharpest reversals in recent weeks, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to any sign of either de-escalation or further confrontation.
Analysts said Trump’s comments briefly opened the door to hopes of diplomacy, but the absence of confirmation from Tehran — along with broader geopolitical risks, including the possibility of Iranian retaliation and continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz — kept market sentiment fragile.
One analyst said markets remained sceptical, noting that concerns over supply security continued to dominate even amid speculation about possible backchannel contacts.
Broader implications
The latest swings in oil prices highlight the close link between geopolitics, energy markets and political messaging.
Tehran’s accusations of market manipulation reflect its view that Washington is trying to ease price pressures without achieving any real diplomatic progress. At the same time, the Trump administration appears to be combining military pressure with signals of possible engagement in an effort to stabilise energy flows and limit the wider economic fallout from the conflict.
READ: Islamabad Eyed for High-Stakes US-Iran Summit Amid Strike Pause
As the five-day pause unfolds, attention will focus on whether any indirect or mediated contact produces concrete progress, or whether the competing narratives from Washington and Tehran simply deepen the uncertainty already driving sharp market volatility.
For consumers and industries already dealing with elevated energy costs, the stakes remain high. A genuine breakthrough could send oil prices sharply lower, as Trump predicted. But if diplomacy stalls and tensions persist, crude is likely to remain well above pre-conflict levels.
