New Delhi
As the U.S. presidential race intensifies, all eyes are once again on the “Blue Wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Traditionally Democratic, these states served as a reliable stronghold until 2016, when Donald Trump’s victories shattered that wall. Four years later, Joe Biden reclaimed them for the Democrats, securing his path to the White House. Now, with Kamala Harris showing a slim lead over Trump in recent polls, these swing states are poised to tip the scales once more.
The “Blue Wall” states are critical because, together, they represent a significant chunk of the electoral votes needed to reach the decisive 270. A win in these states could be Harris’s clearest route to victory. However, the latest polls show her lead within the margin of error, signaling that even a small shift could hand these states to Trump.
According to polling data, Harris holds a slight lead over Trump among nonwhite voters, although her support trails the levels Biden achieved in 2020. Trump, meanwhile, remains ahead among white voters in these states. Independents could be the game-changers here: Harris has pulled ahead in Pennsylvania with 55% of independents backing her compared to Trump’s 40%, reversing previous trends. She has also made minor gains with independents in Michigan and Wisconsin.
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The gender gap remains another influential factor. Harris has strengthened her lead among women in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the gap is now 17 and 21 points, respectively. In Pennsylvania, however, the gender gap has narrowed to 12 points, adding another layer of uncertainty.
In this high-stakes sprint, both campaigns are making last-ditch efforts. Harris is prioritizing Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Trump aims to recreate his 2016 success with rallies in all three states. With both candidates within reach, these Blue Wall states may ultimately decide the White House’s next occupant.
Marist College Polls: Harris Narrowly Ahead in “Blue Wall” States
New Marist College polls conducted between October 27 and 30 indicate Harris leading Trump by slim margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Here’s a closer look at the findings:
PENNSYLVANIA:
Harris leads Trump by two points among likely voters in Pennsylvania, with 50% supporting her and 48% backing Trump. Undecided voters make up 1%, while another 1% supports a third-party candidate. This is an improvement for Harris from September, when the two were tied at 49%. Harris also holds a strong lead among independents, with 55% compared to Trump’s 40%, a notable shift from September, when independents leaned toward Trump. Among early voters, Harris has 63% of the support, while Trump leads among those who haven’t yet voted, 54% to 44%. This poll sampled 1,642 adults with a margin of error of ±3.1%.
WISCONSIN:
In Wisconsin, Harris maintains a two-point lead, at 50% to Trump’s 48%. The undecided and third-party vote shares are each at 1%. Harris’s lead among independents has narrowed slightly to 51% to Trump’s 45%, down from a four-point advantage in September. Among early voters, 57% back Harris, while Trump holds a 53% lead among those yet to vote. The poll, with a sample of 1,549 adults, has a margin of error of ±3.2%.
MICHIGAN:
Of the three battleground states, Harris’s largest lead is in Michigan, where she is ahead by three points, 51% to Trump’s 48%. Harris has also gained support among independents, with 52% backing her compared to 46% for Trump—a stronger lead than in September. In early voting, Harris commands 63% of the vote, while Trump leads among those who haven’t voted at 59%. This poll surveyed 1,429 adults with a margin of error of ±3.2%.
As both campaigns bear down in the final days, these “Blue Wall” states remain pivotal battlegrounds in the quest for the White House.
